Advertising pays for a lot of things .... what happens when the ad budget dries up in a recession?

Doing some research on the effects of the Great Depression in the 1930s, I started wondering what happened to advertising during that period.

Although I haven't turned up any detailed studies, I tool a look at the various archives of advertising that allow internet access to their exhibits, and noted the general move to less expensive, more localised advertising, and fewer adverts for more expensive goods.

It made me wonder what will happen to online advertising if the current credit crunch starts to drive a worldwide recession. If the budgets starrt to get reduced, and the emphasis switches to retaining brand loyalty instead of actively seeking out new markets, are the marketing brains going to decide to return to traditional advertising in restricted local marketing campaigns where the results are more easily measurable?

If that happens, a whole lot of companies fueling the current expansion of demand for bandwidth are going to find that their business model doesn't add up. Many of the companies distributing video via the net rely heavily on on-page advertising to fund their existence, and without ad-funding will simply dry up and blow away in am internet version of the Dust Bowl of the US Mid-West in the 1930s.

With this speculative disappearance of ad-funding and the loss of the current advertising funded business model so many of the boom companies rely on, what is going to happen to infrastructure demand and what is going to replace this business model to underpin the 'new' internet.

As far as the demand on the infrastructure is concerned, I have a feeling that the current increase in backbone spending (Financial Times: Internet-led demand puts cable-laying at top of list) is premature. As businesses and individuals tighten their belts, internet providers and their suppliers are going to see a reduction in demand, and its not going to come on slowly.

Its a feature of the 1930s depression that countries and individuals became more and more localised in their habits and mentalities, concentrating on survival rather than expanding their horizons. When its a choice between making that mortgage payment or funding the kids broadband access so they can keep up their Facebook contacts, I know which is going to suffer first.

As the users flood out of the system, and the advertising budgets shrink, and the video websites and music websites wither and die, so microeconomics are going to increasingly come into play. users are going to be willing to pay only for what they actually use or do, so services charging a few pennies or cents to deliver an email are going to find a demand. Need a Google search? OK but it'll cost you a few cents from your PayPal account.

We're going to become a subscriber culture, with low costs pay-per-use applications scrabbling around for brand loyalty. And I for one would welcome that, because only those organisations that supply and efficient cost effective and guaranteed service are likely to survive.

Hopefully that means that when I visit NewGoogleSubscriber, I'll just see the results of my search. Not ads targeted at the person my carefully calculated profile says I am.

Philosophy 101

There are two things I was always taught never to discuss in public. One was politics. The other was religion.

I've never met, or listened to a politician worth wasting my breath on.

Religion is another matter. Not that I'm religious. I don't know whether there is a god up there, or whether he cares about me, but if there is a god, and he does care about me, then I'd be happy.

But I've listened to people talk about religion all my life, I've read the bible (several different versions), I've read the Qur’an in translation, and I've discussed most other major religions with people who know and understand those beliefs.

And the one thing that all of the major belief systems seem to have in common is a definition of a god as an all-seeing, all-powerful and omniscient entity, a 'being' that understand the frailty of us humans, and expects us to fail at times.

And all also have a definition, however it is worded, of a how a person should behave if they want to be considered a 'good' person, and I find it not at all strange that these many religions all have basically the same definition of a good person. Someone who is kind, considerate to other, respectful of property and life and health and happiness, willing to give, not just take, willing to listen and be compassionate, and most of all, willing to live their lives that way as an example to others.

I don't mean they need to visit a church or a mosque or a temple every day, pray hourly or anything like that. I mean they need to live in a way that shows other people that you can be kind, compassionate, respectful and loving, and still be successful, happy and complete.

I figure that if a person lives this way, then if there is a god, then he (or she, I'm not sexist) can't really complain. If (s)he is a god, then (s)he also must be 'good', which means kind, compassionate and respectful. So I can't figure how (s)he would cast me into the pits of hell (or whatever equivalent place exists for that deity) if I've done everything I can to try to live a good life. Even if I don't go to church, or pray, or give money to the poor.

Its not what you say. Its not what you give.

Its how you live.

If any deity is going to damn me for living my life as a 'good' man, then frankly I don't think (s)he is much of a God.

First week

I started a new job this week, working from home for an online newsfeed publisher.

No, I'm not going to name them, because that way I can say what I like and you guys won't know who I'm talking about.

My immediate impression is that I like the people I'm working with, but that most press release writers need to be taken outside, tied down naked over an ants' nest and covered in honey, and left there until they learn how to tell the truth.

I have never before been seriously exposed to these people (after all, most of the advertising we see has been 'sanitised' and tuned for public consumption, but this last week I've been forced to deal with the raw output from the minds of these PR copywriters, and believe me, its evil. Even politicians don't have a chance to compete, these guys can make you believe anything, all the while without actually telling a lie.

How long I can put up with it? God knows, but I'm broke at the moment, so I can't think about dumping the job - the actual work is easy, my editor is great, and the other writers and editors are OK too.

We'll just have to see.